Fire SlimesTier 2
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
7
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
61
29-21-11
overall winrate
56.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.9%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1330
· median 1278
· range 1217–1464
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 12 | 5-4-3 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 52.3% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +3.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 75.8% | +14.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 78.4% | +27.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 9 | 4-2-3 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 54.6% | +2.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 49.3% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.2% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
